# A 25 Percent Chance Things Go Very Badly by Dario Amodei > "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly." > **— Dario Amodei**, *September 17, 2025, Axios AI+ DC Summit* *Verification Status: Editorially quarantined — the percentage is authentic, but the event is not in the quotation; the source defines it as AI destroying humanity. Recover a complete, self-contained passage before promotion.* ## Sources and Context - **Summit report and quotation context:** [Amodei on AI: "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly"](https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent) — Axios reports that the percentage was Amodei's estimate of the probability that AI goes badly enough to destroy humanity; he paired it with a 75% chance that things go very well. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Collection:** [[collections/MARS|MARS]] - **Article:** [[articles/AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor|AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor]] - **Article:** [[articles/The Last Migration Will Not Be Human|The Last Migration Will Not Be Human]] - **Article:** [[articles/Christopher Nolan's Odyssey at the Threshold of Machine Succession|Christopher Nolan's Odyssey at the Threshold of Machine Succession]] - **Wiki map:** [[wiki/Artificial General Intelligence|Artificial General Intelligence]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Alignment Problem|Alignment Problem]] - [[wiki/State-Dependent Catastrophe|State-Dependent Catastrophe]] - [[wiki/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - [[wiki/AI Coordination Systems|AI Coordination Systems]] - [[wiki/Marsification|Marsification]] ## Share on Social Media ``` "There's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly." — Dario Amodei, September 17, 2025, Axios AI+ DC Summit https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-dario-amodei-25-chance-go-badly ```