# AI Governance Should Map Expected Benefit and Catastrophic Regret by Emad Mostaque > AI governance needs a map of what could go right and what could go wrong, stated by the people making each case. Expected utility helps weigh probable outcomes; minimax regret identifies losses society cannot accept. Policy should respond to the mapped gaps instead of governing from undifferentiated fear. > **— Adapted from Emad Mostaque**, *Moonshots, October 7, 2026* ## Sources and Context - **Recording and precise locator:** [48:45](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRdb8UmPnh0&t=2925s) — *The Fight Over Claude's Consciousness, AI's 1942 Moment, & Why Altman Says "Accept Some Bad Things"*, Moonshots, October 7, 2026. - **Exact reconciled source excerpt:** “When we make decisions normally, we do an expected utility calculation. When we deal with uncertainty, we do minimax regret. There is nowhere that you can go and actually see a proper map of what the people who are scared and the people who are positive actually say about each scenario in the future. Then you can see what requires a policy and regulatory response.” - **Editorial status:** The poster is explicitly labeled **Adapted from** because it consolidates spoken context into a self-contained proposition. It must not be represented as verbatim speech. Numerical claims, forecasts, legal interpretations, and claims about current organizations remain the speaker’s assertions unless separately verified. - **Reconciled source dossier:** [[research/All Things Superintelligence Research - The Coming Manhattan Project - Moonshots|All Things Superintelligence Research — The Coming Manhattan Project — Moonshots]] preserves broadcast order, speaker attribution, timing, and the source-fidelity boundary. - **Preparation ledger:** [[research/All Things Superintelligence Research - The Coming Manhattan Project - Moonshots - Reminder and Wiki Preparation|Reminder and Wiki Preparation]] records candidate 17, its mechanism, evidence posture, and misreading risks. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Simple Reminders|Simple Reminders]] - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Wiki source hub:** [[wiki/Moonshots - The Coming Manhattan Project|Moonshots — The Coming Manhattan Project]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Emad Mostaque|Emad Mostaque]] - [[wiki/Expected Utility|Expected Utility]] - [[wiki/Minimax Regret|Minimax Regret]] - [[wiki/AI Governance|AI Governance]] ## Share on Social Media ``` AI governance needs a map of what could go right and what could go wrong, stated by the people making each case. Expected utility helps weigh probable outcomes; minimax regret identifies losses society cannot accept. Policy should respond to the mapped gaps instead of governing from undifferentiated fear. — Adapted from Emad Mostaque, Moonshots, October 7, 2026 https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-emad-mostaque-ai-governance-should-map-expected-benefit-and-catastrophic-regret ```