# We Cannot Calculate the Risks of Future AI by Gary Marcus > “The truth is that we simply don't know enough about the potential biotechnology, nanotechonology, or future iterations of artificial intelligence to calculate what their risks are, compelling arguments have been made that in principle any of the three could lead to human extinction. These risks may prove manageable, but I don't think we can manage them if we don't take them seriously. In the long run, biotech, nanotech and AI are probably significantly more likely to help the species, by increasing productivity and limiting disease, than they are to destroy it. But we need to invest more in figuring out exactly what the risks are, and to better prepare for then. Right now, the US spends more than $2.5 billion dollars a year studying climate change, but (by my informal reckoning) less than 1% of that total studying the risk of biotech, nanotech, and AI.” > **— Gary Marcus**, *2013, Edge Annual Question, “What *should* We Be Worried About?”* ## Sources and Context - **Direct Edge response and surrounding essay:** [Unknown Unknowns](https://www.edge.org/response-detail/23691) — Edge published this exact passage in its 2013 Annual Question collection, *WHAT *SHOULD* WE BE WORRIED ABOUT?*. The response page preserves the surrounding argument and qualifications. - **Complete local collection index:** [[research/Edge 2013 Full Quotation Curation|Edge 2013 Full Quotation Curation]] — retained source-first record for the complete response cohort and this passage's promotion status. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Edge|Edge]] - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Collection:** [[collections/MARS|MARS]] - **Article:** [[articles/We Were Never Going to Make It|Never Going to Make It!]] - **Article:** [[articles/The Last Migration Will Not Be Human|The Last Migration]] - **Article:** [[articles/Christopher Nolan's Odyssey at the Threshold of Machine Succession|Nolan's Odyssey]] - **Wiki map:** [[wiki/Species-Level Maturation|Species-Level Maturation]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Species-Level Maturation|Species-Level Maturation]] - [[wiki/Convergent Evolution|Convergent Evolution]] - [[wiki/Coevolution|Coevolution]] - [[wiki/Evolvability|Evolvability]] ## Share on Social Media ``` “The truth is that we simply don't know enough about the potential biotechnology, nanotechonology, or future iterations of artificial intelligence to calculate what their risks are, compelling arguments have been made that in principle any of the three could lead to human extinction. These risks may prove manageable, but I don't think we can manage them if we don't take them seriously. In the long run, biotech, nanotech and AI are probably significantly more likely to help the species, by increasing productivity and limiting disease, than they are to destroy it. But we need to invest more in figuring out exactly what the risks are, and to better prepare for then. Right now, the US spends more than $2.5 billion dollars a year studying climate change, but (by my informal reckoning) less than 1% of that total studying the risk of biotech, nanotech, and AI.” — Gary Marcus, 2013, Edge Annual Question, “What *should* We Be Worried About?” https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-gary-marcus-cannot-calculate-risks-future-ai ```