# A Ten Percent AI Extinction Risk Is Not Unreasonable by Geoffrey Hinton > "Nobody knows how to estimate it; a 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate." > **— Geoffrey Hinton**, *September 2026, BBC Newsnight interview on AI-caused human extinction within a decade* *Verification Status: Editorially quarantined — `it` does not identify AI-caused human extinction. Recover a complete, self-contained passage before promotion.* ## Sources and Context - **Broadcast clip:** [BBC Newsnight interview with Geoffrey Hinton](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZMjJGi4YhI) — Victoria Derbyshire asks about a greater-than-ten-percent chance that AI could kill all humans within a decade. - **Full quotation and contemporary report:** [OpenAI not on track to reduce risk of catastrophic loss of control, says board member](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/10/openai-risk-catastrophic-loss-control-board-member-paul-christiano) — preserves Hinton's uncertainty about estimating the probability as well as the ten-percent figure. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Collection:** [[collections/MARS|MARS]] - **Article:** [[articles/AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor|AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor]] - **Article:** [[articles/Host-Indexed Autonomy|Host-Indexed Autonomy]] - **Article:** [[articles/The Last Migration Will Not Be Human|The Last Migration Will Not Be Human]] - **Wiki map:** [[wiki/Artificial General Intelligence|Artificial General Intelligence]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Geoffrey Hinton|Geoffrey Hinton]] - [[wiki/Alignment Problem|Alignment Problem]] - [[wiki/State-Dependent Catastrophe|State-Dependent Catastrophe]] - [[wiki/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - [[wiki/AI Coordination Systems|AI Coordination Systems]] - [[wiki/Marsification|Marsification]] ## Share on Social Media ``` "Nobody knows how to estimate it; a 10% chance seems not an unreasonable estimate." — Geoffrey Hinton, September 2026, BBC Newsnight interview on AI-caused human extinction within a decade https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-geoffrey-hinton-not-unreasonable-estimate ```