# AI Has Tied the Best Human Superforecasters by Emad Mostaque > "[Math is] one of the most formally verifiable [domains], but even outside of that we’re seeing human-level performance drop. Two days ago, the AIs tied the best humans in superforecasting. There are some humans who are better than others at forecasting things like outcomes of political campaigns [and] who’s going to win elections. Every year [Metaculus has] a superforecasting championship where the best human teams come together and forecast stuff. AI has just tied the best human, and obviously it will beat the best human now. [Forecasting] is something that’s open-ended, because math is kind of deterministic. You’d think a computer should be able to do math better than a human. This high-level conceptual math is a bit different, but [AI has] got there, and now it’s got there in open-ended domains." > **— Emad Mostaque**, *Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026* ## Sources and Context - **Recording and precise locator:** [9:32](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsdcF7EEvhM&t=572s) — Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026. - **Exact reconciled source object:** “[Math is] one of the most formally verifiable [domains], but even outside of that we’re seeing human-level performance drop. Two days ago, the AIs tied the best humans in superforecasting. There are some humans who are better than others at forecasting things like outcomes of political campaigns [and] who’s going to win elections. Every year [Metaculus has] a superforecasting championship where the best human teams come together and forecast stuff. AI has just tied the best human, and obviously it will beat the best human now. [Forecasting] is something that’s open-ended, because math is kind of deterministic. You’d think a computer should be able to do math better than a human. This high-level conceptual math is a bit different, but [AI has] got there, and now it’s got there in open-ended domains.” - **Editorial status:** The poster preserves the source-faithful object, including visible bracketed repairs and omissions where present. - **Reconciled source dossier:** [[research/AI Is Now So Good They Will Pay You to Quit|AI Is Now So Good They Will Pay You to Quit]] preserves transcript order, speaker attribution, editorial conventions, and the surrounding argument. - **Weekly promotion dossier:** [[research/Weekly Reminder Hunt - 2026-10-02|Weekly Reminder Hunt — October 2, 2026]] records why this object was selected for permanent promotion. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Simple Reminders|Simple Reminders]] - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Article:** [[articles/The Gigawatt Is the New Measure of War|The Gigawatt Is the New Measure of War]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Emad Mostaque|Emad Mostaque]] - [[wiki/AI Progress|AI Progress]] - [[wiki/Compute Race|Compute Race]] - [[wiki/Biological Moonshots|Biological Moonshots]] ## Share on Social Media ``` "[Math is] one of the most formally verifiable [domains], but even outside of that we’re seeing human-level performance drop. Two days ago, the AIs tied the best humans in superforecasting. There are some humans who are better than others at forecasting things like outcomes of political campaigns [and] who’s going to win elections. Every year [Metaculus has] a superforecasting championship where the best human teams come together and forecast stuff. AI has just tied the best human, and obviously it will beat the best human now. [Forecasting] is something that’s open-ended, because math is kind of deterministic. You’d think a computer should be able to do math better than a human. This high-level conceptual math is a bit different, but [AI has] got there, and now it’s got there in open-ended domains." — Emad Mostaque, Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026 https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-mostaque-ai-has-tied-best-human-superforecasters ```