# Overlapping Exponential Trends Are Accelerating AI Progress by Emad Mostaque > I understand what is happening in AI. We reached a level of optimization, and the internals of the models reached a scale at which progress became predictable. Now several exponential trends are overlapping and making the combined rate of progress even more exponential. > **— Adapted from Emad Mostaque**, *Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026* ## Sources and Context - **Recording and precise locator:** [20:41](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsdcF7EEvhM&t=1241s) — Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026. - **Exact reconciled source object:** “I understand what is happening in AI. We reached a level of optimization, and the internals of the models reached a scale at which progress became predictable. Now several exponential trends are overlapping and making the combined rate of progress even more exponential.” - **Editorial status:** The poster is transparently labeled as an adaptation because the reconciled dossier required synthesis beyond bracket-only repair. - **Reconciled source dossier:** [[research/AI Is Now So Good They Will Pay You to Quit|AI Is Now So Good They Will Pay You to Quit]] preserves transcript order, speaker attribution, editorial conventions, and the surrounding argument. - **Weekly promotion dossier:** [[research/Weekly Reminder Hunt - 2026-10-02|Weekly Reminder Hunt — October 2, 2026]] records why this object was selected for permanent promotion. ## Related Articles and Collections - **Collection:** [[collections/Simple Reminders|Simple Reminders]] - **Collection:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]] - **Article:** [[articles/The Gigawatt Is the New Measure of War|The Gigawatt Is the New Measure of War]] ## Related Topics - [[wiki/Emad Mostaque|Emad Mostaque]] - [[wiki/Compute Race|Compute Race]] - [[wiki/Biological Moonshots|Biological Moonshots]] - [[wiki/Accelerated Science|Accelerated Science]] ## Share on Social Media ``` I understand what is happening in AI. We reached a level of optimization, and the internals of the models reached a scale at which progress became predictable. Now several exponential trends are overlapping and making the combined rate of progress even more exponential. — Adapted from Emad Mostaque, Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, 2026 https://bryantmcgill.com/simple-reminders-mostaque-overlapping-exponential-trends-are-accelerating-ai-progress ```