# Aggregative Contingent Estimation **Domain:** Forecasting research program **Doc Type:** Developed Wiki Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition **Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)** was an IARPA program that tested methods for improving and combining probabilistic forecasts about geopolitical events. ## Significance It supplied the institutional tournament in which the Good Judgment Project developed selection, training, calibration, and aggregation techniques. ## Sources - [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]] - [Primary or institutional source](https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/ace) ## Routes [[wiki/IARPA|IARPA]] · [[wiki/Good Judgment Project|Good Judgment Project]] · [[wiki/Philip Tetlock|Philip Tetlock]] · [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]]