# Bayes Factor **Entity class:** Probabilistic And Inverse-Problem Layer concept **Bayes Factor** is a probabilistic construct for updating uncertainty about hidden states or competing explanations when evidence arrives. Used correctly, Bayes Factor supports conditional inference and collection planning without promoting proximity, exposure, or model output into proof. ## Counterterrorism predictive-graph role The page records capability and analytic function. Any claim of a named operational deployment remains subject to the [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph Evidence Ladder|evidence ladder]]. The analytic state should distinguish ground truth, observed evidence, inferred state, and predicted state. ## Relationships - **domain router:** [[wiki/Bayesian Inference|Bayesian Inference]]. - **ontology neighbors:** [[wiki/Model Selection|Model Selection]] and [[wiki/Posterior Odds|Posterior Odds]]. - **synthesis:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]] and [[wiki/Predictive Intelligence Loop|Predictive Intelligence Loop]]. ## Sources - [NIST/SEMATECH — e-Handbook of Statistical Methods (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/) - [Oden Institute — Tan Bui-Thanh research profile (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://oden.utexas.edu/people/directory/Tan-Bui/) **As of:** 2026-09-23