# Closed-Loop Predictive Intelligence **Closed-loop predictive intelligence** is an iterative analytic process: **observe → resolve entities → construct relationships → infer hidden state → quantify uncertainty → forecast transitions → identify the most informative missing observation → lawfully collect or fuse evidence → update → determine whether intervention is justified → audit** The process is closed because forecasts influence collection priorities, new observations revise the model, and the revised model changes the forecast. Authority, provenance, and auditability remain part of the loop. ## Relationships - **analytic model:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]]. - **collection logic:** [[wiki/Value of Information|Value of Information]] and [[wiki/Collection Management|Collection Management]]. - **operational destination:** [[wiki/Probabilistic Precrime|Probabilistic Precrime]]. - **trust layer:** [[wiki/Machine-Readable Assurance|Machine-Readable Assurance]]. - **collection route:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Collection - Predictive Policing and Probabilistic Precrime|Predictive Policing and Probabilistic Precrime]]. ## Sources / Provenance - [RAND — Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations, 2013](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR233/RAND_RR233.pdf) - [[research/Machine-Readable Assurance and the Convergence of Intelligence|Machine-Readable Assurance and the Convergence of Intelligence]] **As of:** 2026-09-23