# Counterfactual Reasoning **Domain:** Causal Inference / Cognition / Decision Theory **Function:** Reasons about what would follow if some condition, action, or event had been different. Counterfactual reasoning distinguishes mere association from causal structure by asking not only what happened, but what would have happened under an alternative condition. It supports planning, regret, responsibility, diagnosis, scientific explanation, and policy evaluation. A counterfactual model is only as trustworthy as its causal assumptions. Simulating alternative selves or futures can clarify a decision, but it can also make an institution's preferred causal story appear inevitable. [[wiki/Counterfactual Self-Simulation|Counterfactual Self-Simulation]] therefore requires provenance: which facts were held fixed, which were changed, who selected the alternatives, and what outcomes the model was allowed to recognize. In [[wiki/Westworld S3E6 — The Model Beneath the Model|Westworld S3E6]], William's younger selves function as counterfactual and developmental models. Their disagreement does not reveal one mechanically true identity; it exposes the causal stories competing for authority over his present conduct. ## Related [[wiki/Causal Story Capture|Causal Story Capture]] · [[wiki/World Modeling|World Modeling]] · [[wiki/Adversarial Self-Modeling|Adversarial Self-Modeling]] · [[wiki/Recursive Self-Correction|Recursive Self-Correction]]