# Counterterrorism Predictive Graph Evidence Ladder **Entity class:** Evidentiary framework The **Counterterrorism Predictive Graph Evidence Ladder** prevents five distinct propositions from collapsing into one claim: 1. **Documented capability** — the method, model, system, or institutional capacity exists in the public record. 2. **Documented cross-domain method transfer** — the same researcher, group, or methodological family is publicly shown moving between domains. 3. **Documented sponsor mission relevance** — an authoritative source places the sponsor's mission near the receiving application. 4. **Strongly indicated foreseeable dual use** — capability, portability, and institutional context make the additional use technically apparent and mission-germane. 5. **Specific operational application not publicly established** — no available public record proves a named commissioning, deployment, or operational use. The fifth finding is **unresolved**, not negative. It cannot be rewritten as “did not occur,” “was not intended,” or “was excluded.” Operational-use claims require direct evidence; public silence establishes only the present limit of public demonstration. This ladder separates **origin**, **capability**, **applicability**, **foreseeability**, and **application**. It permits strong findings about method and institutional relevance without manufacturing a classified history or using the absence of declassified documentation as evidence against one. ## Relationships - **governs:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]], [[wiki/Tan Bui-Thanh|Tan Bui-Thanh]], and [[wiki/Defense Threat Reduction Agency|Defense Threat Reduction Agency]]. - **distinguishes:** [[wiki/Documented Cross-Domain Method Transfer|Documented Cross-Domain Method Transfer]], [[wiki/Foreseeable Dual Use|Foreseeable Dual Use]], and [[wiki/Specific Operational Application Not Publicly Established|Specific Operational Application Not Publicly Established]]. - **complements:** [[wiki/Coordination Ladder|Coordination Ladder]] and [[wiki/Transmitted Objective|Transmitted Objective]]. ## Sources - [Oden Institute — How to Predict, Intervene, and Contain Current and Future Epidemics, October 19, 2020](https://oden.utexas.edu/news-and-events/news/CONTEXTanBuiThanh/) - [2019 DTRA Strategic Plan for Research, Development, Test and Evaluation](https://www.dtra.mil/Portals/61/Documents/Missions/190424_2019_DTRA_Strategic_Plan_for_RDTE.pdf) - [Basic Research for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction — DTRA](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D15-PURL-gpo18268/pdf/GOVPUB-D15-PURL-gpo18268.pdf) **As of:** 2026-09-23