# Decision Theory **Entity class:** Decision-Theory And Collection-Management Layer concept **Decision Theory** is a decision-and-collection concept used to select actions or observations that improve a consequential judgment. Decision Theory matters because the analytic object is a changing, partially observed system rather than a finished dossier. ## Counterterrorism predictive-graph role The page records capability and analytic function. Any claim of a named operational deployment remains subject to the [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph Evidence Ladder|evidence ladder]]. The analytic state should distinguish ground truth, observed evidence, inferred state, and predicted state. ## Relationships - **domain router:** [[wiki/Decision Theory|Decision Theory]]. - **ontology neighbors:** [[wiki/Analyst Attention|Analyst Attention]] and [[wiki/Bayesian Decision Theory|Bayesian Decision Theory]]. - **synthesis:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]] and [[wiki/Predictive Intelligence Loop|Predictive Intelligence Loop]]. ## Sources - [NIST/SEMATECH — e-Handbook of Statistical Methods (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/) - [Oden Institute — Tan Bui-Thanh research profile (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://oden.utexas.edu/people/directory/Tan-Bui/) **As of:** 2026-09-23