# Extreme Value Theory **Domain:** Risk and statistics **Doc Type:** Developed Concept Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition **Extreme value theory (EVT)** is the branch of statistics concerned with the tails of distributions and the behavior of maxima, minima, or exceedances over high thresholds. It supplies methods for estimating rare, severe outcomes when the center of a distribution is not the main policy problem. ## Significance EVT disciplines claims about war, disaster, and systemic violence. It does not predict the date of a catastrophe; it tests tail shape and supports conditional estimates while making model uncertainty explicit. ## Sources - NIST, [Extreme Value Distributions](https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3667.htm) - Cirillo and Taleb, [Tail risk of violent conflicts](https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722) ## Routes [[wiki/Fat Tails|Fat Tails]] · [[wiki/Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb|Cirillo and Taleb]] · [[wiki/Base Rate|Base Rate]]