# Forecast-Induced Dissipation **Domain:** Predictive Governance / Human Resilience **Doc Type:** Canonical Corpus Term **Maturity:** Developed ## Definition **Forecast-induced dissipation** is degradation produced when institutions withdraw sustaining flows because a model predicts decline. A person modeled as low-yield loses opportunity, care, visibility, trust or repair. The deprivation reduces coherence and capacity; the reduction confirms the model; the system withdraws further support. ## Closed Loop **forecast → resource withdrawal → degradation → confirmation → further withdrawal** This is a special case of [[wiki/Institutional Retrocausality|Institutional Retrocausality]] and can intensify through [[wiki/Recursive Opacity Loop|Recursive Opacity]] when the institution omits its own interventions from the causal record. ## Constitutional Response [[wiki/Counterfactual Opportunity|Counterfactual Opportunity]] preserves alternative paths. [[wiki/Human Resilience|Human Resilience]] treats predicted weakness as a reason to restore adaptive capacity. [[wiki/Corrective Intelligence|Corrective Intelligence]] uses prediction to direct repair rather than justify abandonment. ## Principal Source [[articles/Peak Person and the Predicaments of Prediction|Peak Person and the Predicaments of Prediction]] ## Key Insight **The system can manufacture the decline it later cites as evidence of predictive accuracy.**