# Forecasting Tournament **Domain:** Collective intelligence **Doc Type:** Developed Method Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition A **forecasting tournament** is a structured competition in which participants assign probabilities to resolvable future events and are scored over time, commonly with proper scoring rules such as the Brier score. Repeated feedback makes calibration and revision observable. ## Significance The tournament turns epistemic skill into ranked performance. It can identify forecasters, test aggregation methods, and reward updating rather than rhetorical certainty. Question selection and resolution criteria still govern what the scoreboard can know. ## Sources - IARPA, [ACE Program](https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace) ## Routes [[wiki/Good Judgment Project|Good Judgment Project]] · [[wiki/Michael Spence|Michael Spence]] · [[wiki/Costly Signaling|Costly Signaling]]