# Good Judgment Project **Domain:** Collective intelligence **Doc Type:** Developed Project Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition The **Good Judgment Project** was a research team in IARPA's multi-year Aggregative Contingent Estimation forecasting competition. Participants made millions of probabilistic forecasts on geopolitical events; the project studied selection, training, teamwork, calibration, and aggregation. ## Significance It is a planner-tier institution whose score is accuracy rather than ideological allegiance. The project demonstrates that structured feedback and aggregation can improve judgment, while also making clear that performance depends on resolvable questions and recorded outcomes. ## Sources - IARPA, [Publication of Good Judgment Project data](https://www.iarpa.gov/newsroom/article/iarpa-announces-publication-of-data-from-the-good-judgment-project) ## Routes [[wiki/Forecasting Tournament|Forecasting Tournament]] · [[wiki/Collective Intelligence|Collective Intelligence]] · [[wiki/Base Rate|Base Rate]]