# Ground Truth **Ground truth** is the actual state of the world that an observation, inference, or prediction attempts to represent. It remains distinct from what a sensor recorded, what an analyst inferred, and what a model forecasts. The four-layer discipline used throughout this collection is: **ground truth → observed evidence → inferred state → predicted state** ## Relationships - **estimated by:** [[wiki/State Estimation|State Estimation]] and [[wiki/Inverse Problem|Inverse Problem]]. - **distinguished from:** [[wiki/Prediction versus Determination|Prediction versus Determination]]. - **used in:** [[wiki/Predictive Policing|Predictive Policing]] and [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]]. - **collection route:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Collection - Predictive Graphs|Predictive Graphs]]. ## Sources / Provenance - [NIST AI Risk Management Framework 1.0, January 2023](https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/ai/NIST.AI.100-1.pdf) **As of:** 2026-09-23