# Hawkes Process **Entity class:** Statistical model **Domain:** Point processes / event contagion **Maturity:** Developed ## Definition A **Hawkes process** is a self-exciting temporal point process in which an observed event temporarily raises the modeled intensity of later events. Counterterrorism and violence researchers use it to test whether attacks cluster beyond a background rate and to estimate the size and duration of a copycat or contagion effect. The model describes event dependence; it does not establish that an ideology literally infects a person. ## Relationships - **used in:** [[wiki/Contagion of Terrorism|Contagion of Terrorism]] and [[wiki/Behavioral Contagion|Behavioral Contagion]]. - **complements:** [[wiki/SIR Model|SIR Model]], [[wiki/SEIR Model|SEIR Model]], and [[wiki/Agent-Based Model|Agent-Based Model]]. - **source dossier:** [[research/A Network-Epidemiological Analysis of Radicalization and Real-Time Counterterrorism Observability|Network-Epidemiological Analysis]]. ## Sources / Provenance - [NIH/PMC — Assessing the contagiousness of mass shootings, 2021](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8009418/)