# Model-Based Governance **Domain:** political science **Doc Type:** Concept Node **Classification:** Infrastructure Concept **Maturity:** Evolving **Related:** [[Governance Testbeds]], [[Computational Governance]], [[Nonlinear Dynamics]], [[Measurement Capacity]], [[Operational Logic]] --- ## Definition **Governance systems using computational models to predict policy outcomes before implementation**, simulating effects of alternative institutional designs and parameter choices. Model-based governance enables more rigorous policy testing than traditional trial-and-error. --- ## General Context Agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and computational models increasingly inform policy design. Governance testbeds incorporate modeling to predict outcomes and design feedback mechanisms. --- ## Computational Governance Context [[wiki/Model-Based Governance|Model-based governance]] uses [[wiki/Nonlinear Dynamics|dynamical systems models]] to simulate [[wiki/Governance Testbeds|testbed outcomes]], with [[wiki/NOAA Data Pipelines|weather data integration]] for climate-adaptive scenarios. [[wiki/Measurement Capacity|Real-time measurement]] enables [[wiki/Operational State Machines|state machine]] policy adjustment. --- ## Key Insight Models improve decision-making when they capture relevant causal mechanisms, but overconfidence in model predictions creates risks—unmeasured factors and model errors can produce failed policies despite sophisticated modeling. --- ## See Also [[The Algorithmic State]], [[Climate Systems as Human Resilience Platforms]], [[Optimization Systems]], [[Mathematical Foundations]], [[Human Deliberation]]