# Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb **Domain:** Statistical risk research **Doc Type:** Developed Collaboration Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition **Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb** developed a statistical analysis of violent-conflict fatalities using fat-tail methods and a transformation for variables with a remote finite upper bound. Their work challenges confident claims that recent declines establish a durable “long peace.” ## Significance The collaboration supplies the collection's quantitative warning: catastrophic violence cannot be evaluated with intuitions suited to normal variation. Tail uncertainty and data quality must remain visible when institutions claim that an enclosure has made extreme war unavailable. ## Sources - Cirillo and Taleb, [On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts](https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722) ## Routes [[wiki/Fat Tails|Fat Tails]] · [[wiki/Extreme Value Theory|Extreme Value Theory]] · [[wiki/Democide|Democide]]