# Prediction Market **Domain:** Forecasting / Market design **Doc Type:** Developed Wiki Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition A **prediction market** is a market in contracts whose payoffs depend on the outcome of future events, allowing prices to aggregate dispersed beliefs and incentives. ## Significance Its legal classification depends on contract design, operator status, jurisdiction, and the regulatory boundary between derivatives and gambling. ## Sources - [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]] - [Primary or institutional source](https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets) ## Routes [[wiki/Polymarket|Polymarket]] · [[wiki/Kalshi|Kalshi]] · [[wiki/CFTC|CFTC]] · [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]]