# Prediction versus Determination **Entity class:** Legal, Policy, Privacy, And Analytic-Limits Layer concept **Prediction versus Determination** is a conditional forecasting concept for estimating possible future states without treating probability as determination. Prediction versus Determination belongs in the ontology because AI can compute over this structure while analysts retain responsibility for interpretation and authorized action. ## Counterterrorism predictive-graph role Its controls are part of the computational trust fabric, not peripheral paperwork: permissions, provenance, purpose, and auditability must remain machine-enforceable across systems. The analytic state should distinguish ground truth, observed evidence, inferred state, and predicted state. ## Relationships - **domain router:** [[wiki/Intelligence Oversight|Intelligence Oversight]]. - **ontology neighbors:** [[wiki/Proportionality|Proportionality]] and [[wiki/Intelligence Oversight|Intelligence Oversight]]. - **synthesis:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]] and [[wiki/Predictive Intelligence Loop|Predictive Intelligence Loop]]. ## Sources - [NIST SP 800-53 Rev. 5, Release 5.2.0, August 27, 2025](https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/sp/800/53/r5/upd1/final) - [ODNI — ICD 503, Intelligence Community Information Technology Systems Security Risk Management, September 15, 2008](https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICD/ICD_503.pdf) **As of:** 2026-09-23