# Predictive Defense **Entity class:** Protective-security architecture ## Definition **Predictive defense** continuously estimates which known and unknown weaknesses are becoming exploitable, which weak signals alter an attack hypothesis, and which observation or intervention can most reduce risk before the terminal event. It converts uncertainty into prioritized sensing, hardening, collection, disruption, and adaptation. ## Relevance to this collection It is the affirmative destination of [[wiki/Predictive Intelligence|Predictive Intelligence]], [[wiki/Probabilistic Precrime|Probabilistic Precrime]], [[wiki/Threat Model Failure|Threat Model Failure]], [[wiki/Attack Graph|Attack Graph]], and [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]]. ## Relationships - **master collection:** [[collections/Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the Intelligence Environment|Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the Intelligence Environment]]. - **convergence:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism-Cybersecurity Convergence|Counterterrorism–Cybersecurity Convergence]]. ## Sources / Provenance - [RAND Corporation, *Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations*, 2013](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR233.html). **As of:** 2026-09-23