# Predictive Intelligence **Predictive intelligence** is the transition from static records and retrospective analysis toward continuously updated estimates of hidden states, changing relationships, conditional futures, and the observations or interventions most likely to alter an outcome. Its central object is a temporal model rather than a finished dossier. New observations revise identity, relationships, confidence, possible trajectories, and collection priorities. ## Relationships - **model:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]]. - **loop:** [[wiki/Closed-Loop Predictive Intelligence|Closed-Loop Predictive Intelligence]]. - **methods:** [[wiki/State Estimation|State Estimation]], [[wiki/Data Assimilation|Data Assimilation]], [[wiki/Uncertainty Quantification|Uncertainty Quantification]], and [[wiki/Value of Information|Value of Information]]. - **operational destination:** [[wiki/Probabilistic Precrime|Probabilistic Precrime]]. - **collection:** [[collections/Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the Intelligence Environment|Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and the Intelligence Environment]]. ## Sources / Provenance - [RAND — Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations, 2013](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR233/RAND_RR233.pdf) - [ODNI — Intelligence Community Data Strategy 2023–2025](https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/IC-Data-Strategy-2023-2025.pdf) **As of:** 2026-09-23