# Priced Belief **Domain:** Prediction markets / Signaling **Doc Type:** Developed Wiki Node **Maturity:** Developed **Collection:** [[collections/Gamification|Gamification Collection]] ## Definition **Priced belief** is a forecast expressed through a position that exposes capital or another scarce resource to the consequences of being wrong. ## Significance The price can aggregate information, but liquidity, incentives, wealth, manipulation, and market rules shape what it means. ## Sources - [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]] - [Primary or institutional source](https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets) ## Routes [[wiki/Prediction Market|Prediction Market]] · [[wiki/Costly Signaling|Costly Signaling]] · [[wiki/Sports Betting|Sports Betting]] · [[articles/gamification/Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed|Lex Sportiva and Winning Without Bloodshed]]