# Risk-Based Prioritization **Entity class:** Decision-Theory And Collection-Management Layer concept **Risk-Based Prioritization** is a probabilistic construct for updating uncertainty about hidden states or competing explanations when evidence arrives. Used correctly, Risk-Based Prioritization supports conditional inference and collection planning without promoting proximity, exposure, or model output into proof. ## Counterterrorism predictive-graph role The page records capability and analytic function. Any claim of a named operational deployment remains subject to the [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph Evidence Ladder|evidence ladder]]. The analytic state should distinguish ground truth, observed evidence, inferred state, and predicted state. ## Relationships - **domain router:** [[wiki/Decision Theory|Decision Theory]]. - **ontology neighbors:** [[wiki/Resource Allocation|Resource Allocation]] and [[wiki/Analyst Attention|Analyst Attention]]. - **synthesis:** [[wiki/Counterterrorism Predictive Graph|Counterterrorism Predictive Graph]] and [[wiki/Predictive Intelligence Loop|Predictive Intelligence Loop]]. ## Sources - [NIST/SEMATECH — e-Handbook of Statistical Methods (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/) - [Oden Institute — Tan Bui-Thanh research profile (accessed September 23, 2026)](https://oden.utexas.edu/people/directory/Tan-Bui/) **As of:** 2026-09-23