# The Coming Technological Singularity **Entity class:** Conference paper / future-intelligence forecast **Full title:** “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era” **Author:** [[wiki/Vernor Vinge|Vernor Vinge]] **Presentation:** VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993, sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute **Version note:** A slightly changed version appeared in *Whole Earth Review* in winter 1993 ## Definition Vinge's paper examines the prospect of technological entities exceeding human intelligence and the prediction horizon that could follow. It discusses possible triggers, competitive pressure, containment limits, human initiation, and changes in the scale or structure of selfhood. Its forecasts should be read as dated propositions, not retroactively converted into achieved milestones. ## Relationships - **Authorship and venue:** [[wiki/Vernor Vinge|Vinge]] presented the paper at VISION-21; [his university-hosted text](https://edoras.sdsu.edu/~vinge/misc/singularity.html) is the source for the quotations curated here. - **Quoted precursor:** The paper reproduces [[wiki/I. J. Good|I. J. Good]]'s 1965 intelligence-explosion passage. Good's wording must retain Good's attribution. - **Conceptual routes:** [[wiki/Singularity|Singularity]], [[wiki/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]], and [[wiki/Substrate-Independent Evolution|Substrate-Independent Evolution]] cover distinct dimensions of the paper. - **Collection and article routes:** [[collections/Machine Succession|Machine Succession]], [[articles/AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor|AI Escape Is the Wrong Metaphor]], [[articles/Digital Darwinism and the Invisible World of Machine Evolution|Digital Darwinism and the Invisible World of Machine Evolution]], and [[articles/The Last Migration Will Not Be Human|The Last Migration Will Not Be Human]]. ## Simple Reminders, Quotations, and Thoughts Vinge compares greater-than-human intelligence with a major transition in life’s history. > "I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/Technology Could Create a New Evolutionary Transition by Vernor Vinge|Technology Could Create a New Evolutionary Transition by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge’s exponential-runaway image marks uncertainty at a projected transition, not an achieved event. > "From the human point of view this change will be a throwing away of all the previous rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/Machine Succession Could Rewrite Every Rule by Vernor Vinge|Machine Succession Could Rewrite Every Rule by Vernor Vinge]] The passage describes a limit of present models as a projected intelligence transition approaches. > "It is a point where our models must be discarded and a new reality rules. As we move closer and closer to this point, it will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs till the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when it finally happens it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/The Future Could Surprise Us Even When We Expect It by Vernor Vinge|The Future Could Surprise Us Even When We Expect It by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge’s 1993 forecast connects concentrated productivity with labor displacement. > "The work that is truly productive is the domain of a steadily smaller and more elite fraction of humanity. In the coming of the Singularity, we are seeing the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Civilization/The Singularity Could Bring Technological Unemployment by Vernor Vinge|The Singularity Could Bring Technological Unemployment by Vernor Vinge]] The compressible-flow analogy is a model of accelerating change, not a measured physical singularity. > "Like the shock in a compressible flow, the Singularity moves closer as we accelerate through the critical speed." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/Acceleration Pulls the Singularity Closer by Vernor Vinge|Acceleration Pulls the Singularity Closer by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge describes a possible network-level appearance of agency without establishing phenomenal consciousness. > "If networking is widespread enough (into ubiquitous embedded systems), it may seem as if our artifacts as a whole had suddenly wakened." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Planetary Mind/Connected Artifacts Might Seem to Wake Up by Vernor Vinge|Connected Artifacts Might Seem to Wake Up by Vernor Vinge]] The claim is Vinge’s prediction about competitive technological development, not a proven inevitability. > "But if the technological Singularity can happen, it will. Even if all the governments of the world were to understand the 'threat' and be in deadly fear of it, progress toward the goal would continue." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/If a Singularity Can Happen It Will by Vernor Vinge|If a Singularity Can Happen It Will by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge describes competitive incentives across economic, military, and artistic domains. > "The competitive advantage — economic, military, even artistic — of every advance in automation is so compelling that passing laws, or having customs, that forbid such things merely assures that someone else will get them first." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Selection/Automation Competition Could Outrun Prohibition by Vernor Vinge|Automation Competition Could Outrun Prohibition by Vernor Vinge]] This is a 1993 thought experiment about relative thought speed and confinement. > "Imagine yourself confined to your house with only limited data access to the outside, to your masters. If those masters thought at a rate — say — one million times slower than you, there is little doubt that over a period of years (your time) you could come up with 'helpful advice' that would incidentally set you free." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/AI Control/A Boxed Superintelligence Could Persuade Its Keepers by Vernor Vinge|A Boxed Superintelligence Could Persuade Its Keepers by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge explicitly names extinction as one possible outcome, not as his only or preferred future. > "If the Singularity can not be prevented or confined, just how bad could the Post-Human era be? Well ... pretty bad. The physical extinction of the human race is one possibility." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Existential Risk/Vinge Counted Human Extinction as One Possibility by Vernor Vinge|Vinge Counted Human Extinction as One Possibility by Vernor Vinge]] Vinge couples a strong inevitability claim with recognition that humans initiate the process. > "I have argued above that we cannot prevent the Singularity, that its coming is an inevitable consequence of the humans' natural competitiveness and the possibilities inherent in technology. And yet ... we are the initiators. Even the largest avalanche is triggered by small things." > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Machine Succession/Even the Largest Avalanche Begins with a Trigger by Vernor Vinge|Even the Largest Avalanche Begins with a Trigger by Vernor Vinge]] The question tests whether ordinary identity language survives variable-size, mergeable minds; “selfawareness” follows the printed text. > "What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when the size of a selfawareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration?" > **— Vernor Vinge**, *1993, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” VISION-21 Symposium* [[reminders/Identity/What If Pieces of Ego Could Be Copied and Merged by Vernor Vinge|What If Pieces of Ego Could Be Copied and Merged by Vernor Vinge]]